The Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer continues its recovery at midday, despite a declining CAC 40 and SBF 120. This movement allows the stock to widen the gap with its 20-day moving average and to clearly move above its long-term average. The Parisian defense sector also benefits from the momentum of Thales and Safran.
The Stock Moves Above its MM200 and Widens the Gap with the MM20
Dassault Aviation's stock gains 1.96% to €301.00, while the SBF 120 drops 0.24% during the session. The stock is among the top gainers in the SBF 120, in an index where decline predominates. Over the week, the stock has risen by 5.84%, which partially offsets the 11.1% decline accumulated over three months. The stock is now 3.78% above the 20-day moving average (€290.05) and 1.20% above the MM200 (€297.43). The MM50 remains at €310.24, which is 2.98% above the current price, indicating immediate resistance to the upward movement.
Parisian Defense Sector Supports the Session, Thales and Safran on the Rise
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The rebound is part of a favorable sectorial dynamic: Thales progresses by 2.44% and Safran by 1.04% during the session. The defense compartment withstands a Parisian market weighed down by nervousness around negotiations between Washington and Tehran, as new American strikes reported in Hormozgan province have caused a rebound in the oil barrel in early Asian trading. On May 12, the stock partnered with OHB to propose the Vortex-S space plane to the European Space Agency, a project that adds to the flow of orders from the military segment. Over a year, the performance stands at -3.46%, after a low point of around €282.80 on May 19. The next technical threshold to cross is now the MM50 at €310.24, whose crossing would pave the way towards the resistance of €331.20.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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