The stock of the polling institute continues its decline in the mid-afternoon, in an otherwise well-oriented Parisian market. The stock moves further away from its short-term technical benchmarks, while the SBF 120 makes progress during the session.
A Decline that Continues the Downtrend, Bringing the Weekly Loss to Over 10%
Ipsos falls by 1.77% to €34.38 during the session, while the SBF 120 gains 0.63% at the same time. The stock thus dips below the technical threshold of €35, after having already broken its support at €36.08 the previous day. Over the week, the decline reaches 10.47%, with the annual drop exceeding 22%. The technical configuration remains heavy. The RSI falls to 31, on the edge of the oversold zone, and the MACD remains negative (-0.25 for the line, -0.41 for the histogram). The price is now trading below its three moving averages: 9.86% below the MM20 at €38.14, 7.06% below the MM50 at €36.99, and 1.32% below the MM200 at €34.84. This last average, which had served as support in recent months, is still a close reference point to the current price.
Moderate Valuation as Management Continues to Implement the Horizons Plan
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The underlying context remains marked by organizational changes initiated around the Horizons plan. On June 19, the group confirmed the appointment of Alexandre Guerin as Deputy General Manager of Performance, following other top-level adjustments announced at the beginning of June. However, these announcements have not been sufficient to halt the technical slide of the last few sessions. In terms of valuation, the stock trades at approximately 6.6 times the earnings expected for the current fiscal year and 6.1 times those of the following year, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed, with an expected EPS growth of 9.7% from one year to the next. The next technical milestone is the MM200 at €34.84, a benchmark immediately in contact with the current price.
Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 % (au S1 : « autour de 2 % »)
Risks mentioned
Middle East conflict has adversely affected activity in the region, a historically strong growth zone
Americas segment remains below expectations with -1.2% organic growth in Q3 due to delays in Horizons strategic plan execution
Persistent uncertainty in macroeconomic and geopolitical environment limiting growth visibility
Opportunities identified
Strong recovery in Citizens business segment with 4.7% organic growth over 9 months and 8.6% in Q3, driven by multi-year contract wins
Acceleration in Asia-Pacific region reaching 2.8% organic growth over 9 months and 4.3% in Q3, supported by momentum in China and India
Rapid growth in Ipsos.Digital DIY platform with 14% organic growth, expanding AI capabilities and synthetic respondents
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 2 559 millions d'euros
Management commentary: PERSPECTIVES : « Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 %, contre 0,6 % en 2025. Cette perspective tient également compte d’un environnement macroéconomique et géopolitique toujours incertain, notamment marqué par les répercussions du conflit au Moyen-Orient sur les activités du Groupe dans la région. Le Groupe confirme son objectif d’un taux de marge opérationnelle au niveau de 2025, reflétant sa capacité à maintenir une discipline financière rigoureuse tout en poursuivant les investissements nécessaires à l’exécution de son plan stratégique Horizons. »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
