Ipsos shares fall 2% and drop 8% over the quarter, below their moving averages
The market research group falls during the session, in a Paris market clearly trending lower after the correction on Wall Street. The stock remains close to its medium-term technical benchmarks, while a share buyback programme that is already well advanced remains ongoing.
A 2.24% decline leaves the share price on its moving averages
Ipsos shares fell 2.24% to €35.86, in an SBF 120 that lost 1.64% after a difficult session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq dropped 5.52% on Thursday.
The stock is in the lower part of the index ranking, without being among the largest decliners. This decline brings it back exactly onto its moving averages: the 20-day moving average (MM20) is at €36.01 and the 50-day moving average (MM50) at €35.96, with gaps of less than 0.5% from the share price, while the 200-day moving average (MM200), at €36.07, is slightly above.
Over the week, performance remains positive, at +1.41%. This series of contacts gives the day's move the character of a test, with immediate support at €35.06. However, the stock remains down 8% over three months.
Third-quarter results and a share buyback already 73% executed
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On October 23, the group had published its results for the first nine months, with organic growth of 2.0% in the third quarter, compared with 0.8% in the first half. At the same time, it had revised its annual organic growth target, now between 1.2% and 1.5%, versus "around 2%" for the half-year.
The company cited among its risks the conflict in the Middle East and the weakness of the Americas segment, where organic growth fell 1.2% in the third quarter.
On the supportive side, the €57 million share buyback programme announced on July 22 is about 73% executed as of November 3, i.e. €42 million already repurchased.
In terms of valuation, the consensus of the analysts surveyed puts the projected price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) at 7.0 times earnings for the current financial year. The group also entrusted the management of its Americas activities to Mitch Barns, former head of Nielsen, on October 29; he took up the role on November 2.
Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 % (au S1 : « autour de 2 % »)
Risks mentioned
Middle East conflict has adversely affected activity in the region, a historically strong growth zone
Americas segment remains below expectations with -1.2% organic growth in Q3 due to delays in Horizons strategic plan execution
Persistent uncertainty in macroeconomic and geopolitical environment limiting growth visibility
Opportunities identified
Strong recovery in Citizens business segment with 4.7% organic growth over 9 months and 8.6% in Q3, driven by multi-year contract wins
Acceleration in Asia-Pacific region reaching 2.8% organic growth over 9 months and 4.3% in Q3, supported by momentum in China and India
Rapid growth in Ipsos.Digital DIY platform with 14% organic growth, expanding AI capabilities and synthetic respondents
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 2 559 millions d'euros
Management commentary: PERSPECTIVES : « Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 %, contre 0,6 % en 2025. Cette perspective tient également compte d’un environnement macroéconomique et géopolitique toujours incertain, notamment marqué par les répercussions du conflit au Moyen-Orient sur les activités du Groupe dans la région. Le Groupe confirme son objectif d’un taux de marge opérationnelle au niveau de 2025, reflétant sa capacité à maintenir une discipline financière rigoureuse tout en poursuivant les investissements nécessaires à l’exécution de son plan stratégique Horizons. »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.