LVMH stock falls to lowest level since 2020, down 13% over one month
The luxury group's stock hits a new unprecedented low since 2020 this Wednesday, extending a series of bearish records accumulating since early September. Two analyst opinions published today, however, offer price targets significantly above current levels, in a CAC 40 that declines noticeably.
A new 6-year low as the CAC 40 records a decline of nearly 2%
LVMH loses 2.97% to €413.90 during the session, after touching €413.70 intraday, its lowest level since 2020 (the previous floor at €414.10 dated from the pandemic period). The decline is part of a broader movement: the stock has fallen nearly 7% over the week and more than 13% over the month, in a Paris market down 1.84% during the session. The CAC 40 itself is evolving in a difficult environment, with tension on long-term rates (the 10-year Bund flirting with highs not seen in 15 years) and surging oil prices, with Brent exceeding $97 a barrel following attacks on Saudi installations.
These two contextual factors weigh on the valuation of growth and luxury stocks exposed to global demand. LVMH remains particularly exposed to the Chinese market, where jewelry sales are declining by 10.1% year-to-date according to official July 2026 data, while Swiss watch exports to China are falling by 18.5% year-on-year, illustrating the slowdown in luxury demand in Asia.
The three moving averages broken through, two analyst opinions published today
On the technical indicators side, the stock is trading below its three moving averages: the 20-day MA at €450.05, the 50-day MA at €469.74 and the 200-day MA at €515.47, representing respective gaps of -8%, -11.9% and -19.7%. The RSI at 34 approaches the oversold zone without having crossed it, signaling selling exhaustion but without a reversal signal at this stage. Despite this degraded technical context, two analyst revisions were published on Wednesday. HSBC downgrades its opinion from "buy" to "hold" while setting a target of €490, representing a gap of nearly 18% above the current price.
Grupo Santander, for its part, upgrades its opinion to "outperform" and raises its target from €442 to €500, which represents an upside potential of more than 20% compared to the session price. These two revisions reflect a divergent reading between the ongoing technical deterioration and valuation levels deemed attractive relative to fundamentals: when publishing the H1 2026 results on July 27, the group had highlighted the acceleration of growth in the second quarter, the success of the Louis Vuitton flagships in Beijing and Seoul, as well as risks related to the negative foreign exchange effect of -5% and the disrupted geopolitical context. The nearest resistance level remains at €486.90, beyond which the stock would find more neutral ground.
