Orange stock leads the CAC 40, but remains below its three moving averages
Orange is topping the CAC 40 in a nearly stable session this Monday, posting one of the notable gains on the Paris index. The stock nonetheless remains under pressure in the medium term, with the three major moving averages weighing above the price for several weeks.
A limited rebound that does not mask a deteriorated technical configuration
Orange is trading at €15.46 in session, up 0.78% from Friday, September 4th's last close. This rebound is in line with the past week, which already posted a gain of 1.74%. Over the month, however, the balance sheet remains heavy: the stock has lost 5.27%, and the decline reaches 11.33% over three months, illustrating a distinctly negative trend since summer. The technical configuration confirms this pressure.
The price is evolving below its three moving averages: the MA20 at €15.94 (difference of -3.01%), the MA50 at €16.19 (difference of -4.51%) and the MA200 at €16.40 (difference of -5.73%). These three references form as many successive resistances that the stock should break through to regain more favorable momentum. The RSI at 40 reflects persistent selling pressure without signaling outright oversold conditions, while the MACD remains in negative territory. The nearest support is identified at €15.10, representing a limited margin below the current price.
A submarine strategic project and a heavy macro context for the back-to-school season
On the front of recent news, Orange joined the ReuNION submarine cable consortium in early September, a link between Réunion and South Africa co-financed by the European Union and part of its Trust the future strategic plan. This type of infrastructure operation reflects the group's desire to strengthen its positions on international connectivity routes, without immediately measurable effect on the stock price. During the publication of Q1 2026 results (April 30, 2026), the group mentioned among its opportunities the entry into exclusive negotiations with Altice for the acquisition of SFR, a matter liable to reshape the French telecoms landscape if it concludes. In the background, the macroeconomic context of this back-to-school season weighs on expectations: the probability of a rate hike by the Fed at the September 15-16 meeting has risen to approximately 57% following a report on U.S. employment exceeding expectations in August, with 162,000 non-farm job creations and PCE inflation still at 3.7% year-over-year.
Persistently restrictive policy rates in the United States tend to strengthen the dollar and reduce appetite for high-yield assets, of which telecom stocks are part. Orange remains historically sensitive to the OECD's advanced indicator for the United Kingdom (negative correlation), whose potential deterioration would constitute a signal to monitor. The €15.10 support now represents the low reference point to watch in the coming sessions.
