Rafale: India Sends Formal Request for 114 Jets Worth 33 Billion Euros
On Wednesday, New Delhi submitted an official request letter for the purchase of 114 Rafale jets, as reported by Les Échos. Paris has two to three months to respond, with a potential final agreement expected in 2027.
India has sent France a formal request letter for the acquisition of 114 Rafale jets. This move marks an official advancement in the negotiations between New Delhi and Paris, though it does not yet signify the signing of a definitive contract. The French government will have two to three months to formulate its response, with a final agreement anticipated next year. This potential order would amount to 33 billion euros, making it one of the largest Rafale armament acquisitions ever concluded. The timing coincides with the expected visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to France in mid-June for the G7.
Renewal of the Indian Air Fleet
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The Indian Air Force currently has fewer than 30 squadrons, compared to a target of more than 40. The phasing out of the MiG-21 and the scheduled retirements of some MiG-29, Jaguar, and Mirage 2000 aircraft underscore the need for fleet renewal. The Indian Air Force and Navy have already ordered 62 Rafales. With the additional 114 jets under consideration, the total would reach 176 aircraft. The Indian Navy is also contemplating the acquisition of up to 31 additional jets, potentially pushing the total beyond 200 aircraft.
Assembly in India at the Heart of Negotiations
New Delhi is requesting that over 90 Rafales be assembled or manufactured in India, as part of its 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' self-reliance industrial strategy. Dassault has already established local partnerships, including with Tata in Hyderabad and Hical for precision parts. This acquisition would strengthen France's position as a major armament supplier to India, in a context where Russian influence is declining in this market. It would also consolidate the strategic position of Dassault and the French defense industry in South Asia.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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