Stellantis Shares Bounce 2.5% in Attempt to Recover from Multi-Year Low
After several weeks of continuous decline that brought the stock to its multi-year lows, the Italo-American manufacturer is regaining some color at the start of the session. The rebound occurs in a CAC 40 that is trending downward, even as the French automotive market posted growth figures for June.
A Technical Rebound After a More Than 25% Decline Over a Month
Stellantis shares are up 2.57% at €5.11 in mid-morning trading, ranking second in the CAC 40 just behind Renault (+3.87%), while the Paris index is down 0.27%. The rebound follows a sharp drop: the stock is still down 25.48% over a month and nearly 40% over a year, despite today's recovery. The movement appears to be a technical recovery from an oversold zone, with an RSI at 29 indicating seller exhaustion in recent sessions. However, the price remains significantly distant from its medium-term benchmarks, about 17% below its MM20 (€6.14) and 33% below its MM200 (€7.71), indicating that the technical lag is still considerable.
The support identified at €5.27 was breached during yesterday's low, leaving the stock in technically fragile territory despite today's rebound. According to automotive platform data, the French light vehicle market jumped 8.4% in June to 224,338 units. Stellantis only grew by 3.81%, a pace below the overall market, which mechanically erodes its market share in its main European outlet.
Valuation Returns to Very Low Multiples Despite Ongoing Distrust
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According to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is trading at about 6.2 times the earnings expected for the current fiscal year and 3.4 times those of 2027, multiples that reflect the accumulated distrust in the stock after several warnings and reduced visibility on volumes. The stock has lost its MM50 at €6.46 for several weeks and continues to trade below all its moving averages, with the MACD remaining in negative territory at -0.26. The downward trend had been fueled by successive target adjustments by brokers and by a series of recalls, notably the global recall of 1.3 million Jeeps announced on June 11.
Today's rebound is accompanied by a relaxation of the VIX to 16.95, which has fallen nearly 4%, easing pressure on cyclical stocks. The next key milestone for the stock will be the semi-annual report expected at the end of July, which should provide more details on volumes and the group's operating margin.
Le deuxième trimestre a été marqué par des progrès continus, portés par l'Amérique du Nord et soutenus par des contributions importantes de toutes les autres régions. Nous restons confiants dans la réalisation de nos prévisions financières 2026.
Les revenus nets progressent de 13 % à 43,5 milliards d'euros, tirés par l'Amérique du Nord (+32 %) et l'Amérique du Sud (+6 %), l'Europe élargie étant stable et le Moyen-Orient & Afrique ainsi que l'Asie-Pacifique en léger recul. Le résultat opérationnel ajusté atteint 0,8 milliard d'euros (marge de 1,8 %, +120 points de base), toutes les régions affichant une marge positive à l'exception de l'Europe élargie (-0,6 %). Le bénéfice net s'établit à 0,3 milliard d'euros et les flux de trésorerie disponibles industriels à 1,0 milliard d'euros, en amélioration de 1,0 milliard d'euros. La liquidité industrielle disponible s'élève à 44,1 milliards d'euros, soit 27 % des revenus nets des douze derniers mois. Part de marché de 7,4 % en Amérique du Nord (+40 pb), 16,0 % dans l'EU30 (-80 pb), 19,1 % en Amérique du Sud.
Risks mentioned
Impact net des droits de douane estimé entre 1,0 et 1,2 milliard d'euros en 2026
Marge opérationnelle ajustée négative en Europe élargie (-0,6 %)
Ventes en Asie-Pacifique en baisse de 29 %, tirées par le recul de la Peugeot 408
Environ 2 milliards d'euros de sorties de trésorerie liées aux charges du S2 2025
Opportunities identified
Plan stratégique FaSTLAne 2030 en cours de déploiement
Quatrième trimestre consécutif de croissance des ventes en Amérique du Nord
Leapmotor : ventes multipliées par six en Europe sur un an
Partenariat avec DFM pour développer des modèles Peugeot et Jeep en Chine
Lancement de la Leapmotor B10 prévu au T3 2026 et assemblage local en Malaisie
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Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
