Ubisoft Shares Drop 4.5% and Fall Back to Key Support at €4.68
The French video game publisher experiences a sharp decline in mid-morning trading, contrary to a well-oriented Parisian market. The stock is among the biggest losers in the SBF 120, as selling pressure remains high on the stock despite a recent decrease.
A Drop That Brings the Stock Back to Its Support at €4.68
Ubisoft Entertainment's stock loses 4.49% at €4.82, while the SBF 120 index is up by 0.34% during the session. This movement completely erases the previous day's rebound, when the stock had led the index. Ubisoft ranks among the steepest declines in the SBF 120 this morning, in a Parisian market otherwise buoyed by the easing of energy tensions linked to the US-Iran agreement discussed at the G7 in Évian.
The decline brings the price back to its support at €4.68, below all reference moving averages: the MM20 at €5.14 (a gap of -6.13%), the MM50 at €4.96, and the MM200 at €6.00, nearly 20% above the current price. The RSI at 52 remains neutral and does not indicate any particular exhaustion, leaving the €4.68 support as the next technical level to watch.
Cumulative Short Interest Falls to 13% of Capital, But Underlying Pressure Remains High
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According to reviewed statements, ten funds accumulate a net short position of 13.02% of the capital, down by 1.47 points over thirty days (from 14.49% a month ago). The bearish bet recedes but remains at a structurally high level for an SBF 120 stock, indicating persistent institutional mistrust, though the specific reasons remain unclear. This level of short interest mechanically amplifies movements in both directions.
At the core, during the annual accounts publication for 2025/2026 on May 20th, the group mentioned an enhanced content pipeline for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 fiscal years, with net debt reduced from €885 million to €187.3 million. However, the annual revenue was down by 21.8%, and the net result under IFRS was in negative territory. The stock has now lost nearly 48% over the year and remains distant from its MM200 at €6.00.
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« Nous avons enregistré au premier trimestre un net bookings légèrement supérieur à notre objectif. »
Le chiffre d'affaires IFRS 15 du premier trimestre 2026-27 recule de 13,7 % à 268,2 M€ et le net bookings de 9,2 % à 255,8 M€, légèrement au-dessus de l'objectif d'environ 250,0 M€, la baisse reflétant une base de comparaison élevée liée à Assassin's Creed Shadows. Le net bookings back-catalogue s'établit à 221,0 M€ (-15,1 %) et le net bookings digital à 206,2 M€ (-17,6 %), tandis que le PRI est quasi stable à 151,3 M€. Invincible: Guarding the Globe signe un trimestre record. Le début du T2 est marqué par le lancement réussi d'Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced (3,5 millions d'exemplaires en sell-in, note de 84). La transformation se poursuit avec la fermeture de studios et la nomination de Christoph Hartmann à la tête de la Creative House 2.
Risks mentioned
Net bookings attendu en baisse d'un pourcentage à un chiffre élevé sur l'exercice 2026-27
Marge opérationnelle non-IFRS attendue négative sur l'exercice 2026-27
Consommation de free cash-flow pouvant atteindre 500 M€ sur l'exercice
Échéances de dette à refinancer : revue en cours des options de financement
Opportunities identified
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced dépasse les attentes annuelles en 14 jours (3,5 M d'unités)
Sortie de Rayman Legends Retold le 1er octobre 2026 et de Just Dance Decades of Hits le 13 octobre
Performance record d'Invincible: Guarding the Globe sur le segment Mobile
Pipeline de contenus nettement plus solide en 2027-28 et 2028-29 (Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Ghost Recon)
Retour attendu à un EBIT non-IFRS positif et à une génération de free cash-flow dès 2027-28
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
