Ubisoft Stock Dips 3.83%, Short Sellers Pressure Remains High
The French video game publisher loses ground this Thursday noon, going against a generally positive Parisian market trend. The stock is erasing some of the gains made after the mid-May annual earnings release, as the pressure from short sellers continues to be significant.
The stock dips below its 20-day moving average in a bullish Parisian market
Ubisoft's stock falls by 3.83% to €5.12 at midday, while the CAC 40 is up by 0.85% and the SBF 120 by 0.80%. The stock is among the biggest losers in the SBF 120, following the likes of Soitec, Vivendi, and STMicroelectronics. The stock has dipped below its 20-day moving average (€5.20) by 1.58%, after flirting with this threshold in recent sessions. However, it still remains above the 50-day moving average (€4.75), reflecting the rebound from the post-results low. The 200-day moving average, at €6.22, stands 17.72% above the current price, indicating an annual decline of nearly 48%. The RSI at 55 remains neutral, showing no signs of exhaustion, while the technical support identified at €4.68 remains distant. This session follows the announcement on Tuesday of the Rayman Legends Retold remake, scheduled for release on October 1st.
Short positions hold steady at 14.34% of capital, a legacy of a painful annual report
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According to reports, eleven funds hold a cumulative 14.34% of the capital sold short, a notably high level for an SBF 120 stock. This figure has slightly decreased over thirty days (-0.44 point, from 14.78% a month ago), without initiating a real easing. Such a concentration reflects a continued skepticism from institutional investors who were still betting on a decline at the beginning of June; while this number should not be viewed in isolation, it signals a cautious climate to monitor in the coming weeks. This pressure follows the annual accounts for 2025-2026 published on May 20th, which reported a non-IFRS operating loss of €1,044.7 million and a 17.4% decline in net bookings. The company then reported a net debt reduction from €885 million to €187.3 million and anticipated a strengthened content pipeline for the fiscal years 2027-28 and 2028-29. The stock has gained 30.49% over three months, but remains heavily down over one year. The next graphical milestone for holders to watch is the 50-day moving average at €4.75, the last cushion before the support at €4.68.
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« Nous avons enregistré au premier trimestre un net bookings légèrement supérieur à notre objectif. »
Le chiffre d'affaires IFRS 15 du premier trimestre 2026-27 recule de 13,7 % à 268,2 M€ et le net bookings de 9,2 % à 255,8 M€, légèrement au-dessus de l'objectif d'environ 250,0 M€, la baisse reflétant une base de comparaison élevée liée à Assassin's Creed Shadows. Le net bookings back-catalogue s'établit à 221,0 M€ (-15,1 %) et le net bookings digital à 206,2 M€ (-17,6 %), tandis que le PRI est quasi stable à 151,3 M€. Invincible: Guarding the Globe signe un trimestre record. Le début du T2 est marqué par le lancement réussi d'Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced (3,5 millions d'exemplaires en sell-in, note de 84). La transformation se poursuit avec la fermeture de studios et la nomination de Christoph Hartmann à la tête de la Creative House 2.
Risks mentioned
Net bookings attendu en baisse d'un pourcentage à un chiffre élevé sur l'exercice 2026-27
Marge opérationnelle non-IFRS attendue négative sur l'exercice 2026-27
Consommation de free cash-flow pouvant atteindre 500 M€ sur l'exercice
Échéances de dette à refinancer : revue en cours des options de financement
Opportunities identified
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced dépasse les attentes annuelles en 14 jours (3,5 M d'unités)
Sortie de Rayman Legends Retold le 1er octobre 2026 et de Just Dance Decades of Hits le 13 octobre
Performance record d'Invincible: Guarding the Globe sur le segment Mobile
Pipeline de contenus nettement plus solide en 2027-28 et 2028-29 (Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Ghost Recon)
Retour attendu à un EBIT non-IFRS positif et à une génération de free cash-flow dès 2027-28
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
