The share price of the aerospace manufacturer has risen by 4.16% to 285.40 euros mid-session, contrasting with a slight decline of 0.16% in the CAC 40. This increase is part of a positive short-term trend, with a gain of 3.26% over the last seven days, although the three-month trajectory has been more mixed with a decline of 1.45%. Over one year, the performance remains significant with an increase of 51.01%, far surpassing the 9.41% of the Paris index over the same period. However, trading volumes remain limited, representing only 0.02% of the capital, indicating still measured interest from market participants.
This morning, the stock is benefiting from two major announcements regarding the Rafale, the company's flagship fighter jet. France plans to expand its fleet from 225 to 286 aircraft as part of the defense budget project for 2026, with an order of 61 additional jets intended for the Air and Space Force and the National Navy. This decision, which breaks away from the ceiling of 225 aircraft set by the 2019-2025 military programming law, responds to increased operational needs and the replacement of two aircraft lost in an accident in August 2024.
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Technically, the stock is now trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, located at 278.85 euros and 281.00 euros respectively, signaling a recovery after a consolidation phase. These indicators, which smooth out price variations over given periods to identify trends, indicate that the momentum is favorably oriented in the medium term. The current price level also leaves room for growth up to the major technical resistance identified at 304.00 euros, while the support at 269.80 euros provides a safety cushion in case of a decline. The Relative Strength Index, positioned at 37, is in a rather low zone suggesting that the stock is not overbought and thus has potential for rebound. This oscillator, which measures the speed and magnitude of price movements, indicates there is room before reaching an overheating zone. Additionally, with a beta of -0.03, the stock shows almost no correlation with the movements of the CAC 40, explaining its progress while the Paris index slightly declines. This low sensitivity to general market variations gives the stock a defensive profile. The monthly volatility, measured at 6.24%, remains contained, reflecting relatively moderate price variations compared to other defense sector values.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
