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Dassault Aviation Shares Rise 2.59% at Close, Bucking CAC 40 Trend

Dassault Aviation's stock ended the trading session on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, with a notable increase of 2.59%, closing at 277 euros compared to 270 euros the previous day, albeit in a trading volume limited to 0.06% of the capital. This advance contrasts with the CAC 40's decline of 0.69%, which settled at 8,052.51 points. The aerospace manufacturer continues a promising weekly rebound, showing a 4.29% increase over seven days.


Dassault Aviation Shares Rise 2.59% at Close, Bucking CAC 40 Trend

Short-Term Positive Dynamics for the French Group

This performance is part of a positive short-term dynamic for the French group, driven by a series of successive gains since the beginning of the month. Over three months, the stock has recorded an increase of 2.14%, while over a year, the rise reaches 43.37%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40, which only shows an increase of 8.42% over the same period. The current price of 277 euros moves between a support threshold identified at 263.60 euros and a resistance at 286.80 euros, suggesting a technical leeway of nearly 10 euros upwards. The traded volumes remain modest, reflecting a low turnover of capital in a context where institutional investors dominate the group's shareholding. This restricted liquidity sometimes amplifies short-term movements, both upwards and downwards. The one-month volatility, measured at 7.56, indicates a stock that remains sensitive to sporadic order flows, in the absence of major informational catalysts at the end of the year.

Technical Aspects of the Stock

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Technically, the RSI is at 36, which is in neutral territory but close to the oversold zone, suggesting that the stock is not yet in an overheating phase after this recent rebound. The MACD, currently at -1.70 with a signal line at -1.79, shows a slight positive crossover with a histogram at 0.09, which can be interpreted as a nascent recovery signal after a consolidation phase. This crossover occurs in a context where the price remains under pressure compared to its medium and long-term moving averages. Indeed, Dassault Aviation is still below its 200-day moving average, located at 289.83 euros, marking a gap of more than 12 euros. This gap illustrates the distance still separating the stock from its levels last autumn. The 50-day moving average, positioned at 275.93 euros, has just been crossed upwards, which could be a first technical reversal signal if the movement is confirmed.

Solid Fundamental Context for the Group

The fundamental context of the group remains strong, supported by a record order book of 48.3 billion euros as of June 30, 2025, including 239 Rafales and 75 Falcons. The outlook for 2025 anticipates a turnover of about 6.5 billion euros, up from 2024. In the medium term, investors continue to monitor the execution of Rafale deliveries, whose production rate is expected to gradually reach three and then four aircraft per month by 2027-2029, as well as the evolution of Falcon activity in a recovering business jet market. The low correlation to the CAC 40, measured by a beta of -0.03, reminds us that Dassault Aviation's stock moves according to its own dynamics, largely disconnected from the movements of the Parisian index.



Sector Défense · Aéronautique · Industrie Aérospatiale


Assurance vie

Context

Period
  • Period: 2025
Key reported figures
  • Revenue: 7 426 M€
  • Revenue growth: 19,0 %
  • Net income: 977 M€
  • Dividend per share: 4,78 €/action
  • Payout ratio: 35 %
Guidance from the release
  • Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
  • Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
  • Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
  • Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
  • Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
  • Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
  • Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
  • Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
  • Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
  • Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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