Dassault Aviation Shares Up 1.81% at Midday, RSI Indicates Overbought
As of midday on Friday, January 16, 2026, Dassault Aviation's stock has risen by 1.81% to 314.20 euros, after closing at 308.60 euros the previous day. This increase occurs in a favorable business environment for the French aircraft manufacturer, highlighted by recent target price upgrades and a strategic investment in embedded artificial intelligence.
The stock is now approaching its resistance level at 315 euros and has shown remarkable dynamics over the past year, with a gain of 54.32%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 85, indicating a significant overbought condition, which reflects intense buying pressure but also suggests a risk of short-term profit-taking. This rise follows the upward revision of the 2025 revenue forecast, expected to exceed 7 billion euros as announced on January 7, and the strategic investment in Harmattan AI announced on January 12. Several financial institutions have adjusted their targets for the stock this week: UBS has raised its target from 310 to 330 euros with a neutral recommendation, while AlphaValue aims for 369 euros with an accumulate advice, indicating a respective upside potential of 5% and 17.4% from the current price. The stock is trading above its 50-day (278.40 euros) and 200-day (287.93 euros) moving averages, confirming the strength of the underlying trend, supported by a moderate trading volume representing 0.01% of the capital.
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The $200 million fundraising by the French startup Harmattan AI, led by Dassault Aviation, marks a strong strategic signal for the development of future aerial combat systems. This operation values the startup at 1.4 billion dollars and aims particularly at integrating AI technologies into the Rafale F5 and the UCAS autonomous drone program. Operationally, the aircraft manufacturer delivered 26 Rafales in 2025, including 15 for export, compared to 21 the previous year, while deliveries of Falcon business jets reached 37 units, surpassing the 31 of 2024 but falling short of the initial target of 40 units. The technical environment remains favorable despite the overbought level: the MACD shows a positive histogram at 2.71, confirming the strength of the bullish momentum. However, caution may be advisable as the stock approaches the 315 euros threshold, which represents a major psychological and technical level. Investors are now awaiting the publication of the fourth quarter 2025 results scheduled for February 11, followed by the full annual results on March 4, 2026, which will provide a detailed view of the financial trajectory of the group in a particularly dynamic aerospace and defense sector.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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