Amundi Stock Rebounds Nearly 3% and Aims to Reclaim Its MM20
The asset manager benefits from an upswing on the Parisian market to catch its breath after several challenging sessions. Amundi's stock rallies midday, following a sharply rising CAC 40, amidst a tightened European monetary context.
Technical Analysis: Amundi Stock Remains Below Its MM20 Despite the Rebound
Amundi's stock climbs 2.89% to €81.95 during the session, after losing ground in recent sessions. The stock remains below its MM20 at €84.32 (a gap of -2.81%), a threshold it is trying to reclaim after a 4.38% decline over the month. However, the underlying momentum remains strong: the price is 12.35% above its MM200 at €72.94, maintaining a gain of 18.42% over the year. The RSI at 37 indicates seller fatigue from recent sessions, without a clear oversold signal, while today's rebound is supported by the previous day's closing level at €79.65. The next resistance is at €87, close to the historical record of €86.45 set on May 14, as highlighted in the mid-May session.
ECB's Monetary Tightening Redefines the Backdrop for Asset Managers
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The rebound occurs as the ECB today raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, a first hike since September 2023 justified by the return of inflation to 3.2% in May in the eurozone. The new projections from the Eurosystem expect inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and growth reduced to 0.8%, a scenario that alters the landscape for the collection and valuation of bond assets by management companies. Amundi operates in this context after having reorganized its structure into five divisions and three regions on May 18, a simplification aimed at accelerating growth in high-potential areas. The analysts' consensus remains the next guidepost, with the technical resistance of €87 as the upper boundary to reclaim.
Au troisième trimestre, Amundi a prolongé les dynamiques positives avec une collecte de +15 Md€, une hausse des revenus de +5% et une progression du résultat avant impôt de +4 %.
Collecte soutenue (9M +67 Md€, T3 +15 Md€), encours record 2 317 Md€, croissance des revenus (+4,9 % 9M ajusté), forte progression d'Amundi Technology (+48% 9M/9M) et bonne dynamique des ETF (+28 Md€ 9M). Résultats ajustés en hausse: résultat avant impôt ajusté 9M 1 340 M€, résultat net ajusté 9M 978 M€.
Risks mentioned
Incertitude sur le renouvellement du contrat de distribution UniCredit à échéance juillet 2027
Risque de change: effet défavorable du dollar US (-12%) et de la roupie indienne (-15%) sur les encours
Risque de réallocation de l'EPFO pouvant entraîner sorties pour SBI FM (30-40 Md€ évoqués)
Volatilité des marchés pouvant impacter les encours et la collecte
Opportunities identified
Croissance en Asie (collecte 9M +29 Md€, forte contribution des JV et distribution directe)
Distribution Tiers et plateformes digitales (collecte 9M +21 Md€, 34% de la collecte via plateformes digitales)
Actifs privés et stratégies Megatendances (levée Mégatendances III 0,3 Md€)
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
