BNP Paribas shares back above their 20-day moving average and gain 6.5% in one week

A rebound that leaves the stock below its long-term moving averages

BNP Paribas shares gain 1.47% to €93.05 intraday, bringing its gain to 6.7% over seven days. The price is now 5.86% above the MA20, at €87.90, but remains below the MA50 (€94.94, a gap of 1.99%) as well as the MA200 (€95.39, a gap of 2.45%).

The rebound is therefore real without having erased the 16.8% decline suffered over three months, and the MACD, whose histogram is positive, supports this recovery.

The stock remains in the upper part of the CAC 40, ranking eighth in the index, which rose 0.48% over the same period. Société Générale and Crédit Agricole gained 1.60% and 1.42% respectively, but still fell 22.5% and 18.7% over three months.

The French debt issue remains closely watched: the 10-year OAT was at 4.88% on November 4, 25 basis points below its recent peak, and the stock has in the past moved inversely to the OAT-Bund spread.

Two targets adjusted in opposite directions and an ongoing share buyback

Barclays raised its target from €100 to €111 on November 4, while Morgan Stanley lowered it from €129 to €128 the previous day, with an in-line rating.

Barclays' target thus remains 12.4% below the day's price of €93.05, while Morgan Stanley's target is above it. For details, see the analyst opinions on the stock.

The group also announced on October 28 a share buyback program of €1.3 billion. On valuation, the consensus of the analysts surveyed points to a P/E of 8.0 for the current fiscal year and 7.1 for the following one.

On the debt side, the early redemption of 250 million Australian dollars of Tier 2 bonds is scheduled for December 11. The technical resistance at €99.30 constitutes the next visible level in the data, with support at €82.57.