ArcelorMittal: analysts expect EBITDA of $1,972M in the third quarter
On November 2, 2026, ArcelorMittal published the sell-side analyst consensus for its third quarter of 2026, compiled by the independent firm Visible Alpha from estimates as of October 30. This document sets the benchmark established before the publication of the quarterly accounts.
It already incorporates the effects of the shutdown of ArcelorMittal's Ukrainian site, Kryvyi Rih, announced by the group on September 25, 2026. The adjusted indicators exclude the anticipated non-cash charges linked to this decision, and estimates that had not been updated were excluded from their calculation.
EBITDA expected at $1,972M and adjusted EPS of $0.84
According to this consensus, analysts expect for the third quarter of 2026 EBITDA of $1,972M, adjusted net income of $652M and adjusted earnings per share of $0.84. These are aggregated estimates from research firms, not results published by the group.
Twelve brokerage firms that updated their estimates in the Visible Alpha tool contributed to it. Among them are Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Kepler, Morgan Stanley, Oddo and UBS, alongside Bank of America, ING, KeyBanc and Wells Fargo.
ArcelorMittal specifies that it does not take part in either the collection of information or the compilation of the estimates. The group states that it made no contribution to these forecasts, other than referring to information already made public, and disclaims any responsibility for their quality or accuracy.
Kryvyi Rih: Ukrainian charges excluded from adjusted indicators
The technical point of this publication concerns the definition of the adjusted aggregates. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share exclude the anticipated non-cash charges linked to the shutdown of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine, a decision announced on September 25, 2026.
The group also removed from the adjusted net income and adjusted EPS consensus the analysts whose estimates had not yet been updated to reflect the impairment linked to Ukraine. The firms concerned are Bank of America, ING, KeyBanc and Wells Fargo.
This selection means that, for these two aggregates, only estimates based on a framework incorporating the September 25 announcement have been retained. The $1,972M EBITDA, for its part, is presented in the document without any adjustment qualifier.
A benchmark published after a monthly decline in the share price
This publication comes against a volatile stock market backdrop for the company. On October 20, 2026, ArcelorMittal shares were among the largest decliners on the CAC 40, falling 12% over one month.
The stock has since recovered ground: it rebounded by nearly 3% on October 29, then rose to the top of the Paris index in mid-morning on November 2, near its 200-day moving average, located at €55.37.
To put the group's scale into perspective, ArcelorMittal generated revenue of $61.4 billion in 2025, with production of 55.6 million tonnes of crude steel and 48.8 million tonnes of iron ore. The steelmaker has a presence in 60 countries and operates primary steel production capacities in 14 of them.
The consensus published on November 2, 2026 thus sets adjusted net income expected for the third quarter at $652M, calculated excluding non-cash charges linked to the shutdown of the Kryvyi Rih site.
