ArcelorMittal Shares Drop 2.5%, Falling Below its 20-Day Moving Average Amid Carbon Market Concerns
In early afternoon trading, the Luxembourg-based steelmaker continues its consolidation within a slightly declining CAC 40. The stock is among the most significant declines in the Paris index, as European steelmakers push for reforms in the carbon market.
The stock falls below its 20-day moving average after a 112% annual rally
ArcelorMittal shares have dropped 2.35% to €56.46, down from €57.82 the previous day. The stock is among the steepest declines in the CAC 40, ranking low alongside Carrefour, Capgemini, Stellantis, and Renault. The Paris index itself has fallen by 0.12% at the same time, highlighting the isolated nature of the movement in the steel sector. The price has fallen below the MM20 (€58.69), with a gap of -3.80%, marking a clear break in short-term dynamics.
The MM50 at €54.54 now acts as a natural cushion, with the price being 3.52% above it. The RSI at 52 remains neutral, indicating no particular tension. The performance remains strong over a longer period, with a gain of nearly 25% over three months and 112% over a year, positioning the stock well above its MM200 (€43.49).
European Steelmakers Call for Reform of the EU ETS Carbon Market
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ArcelorMittal, thyssenkrupp Steel, and voestalpine issued a joint call yesterday to adapt the European Union's emissions trading system. The three groups warn that the current architecture could undermine the competitiveness of the European steel industry and hinder its energy transition. This joint initiative comes as Chinese statistics remain mixed, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.3 in April but an OECD leading indicator trending at 98.91 in May, impacting sector sentiment.
The decline in Brent crude to around $79.62 a barrel, down more than 16% in a few sessions following the US-Iran agreement, indirectly reduces the energy costs for European steel mills. The technical support reference remains at €51.26, about 9% below the current price, while the resistance at €62.14, already tested in early June, frames the upper zone.
« Looking ahead, we remain very positive. » ; « Outlook across the near, medium and long term remains positive »
Risks mentioned
Ukraine operations idled following multiple missile strikes with safety and logistical challenges; future cash spend expected to be limited
Temporary $2.5bn working capital investment during 9M 2026 creating near-term cash drag, though expected to unwind in 4Q
Weather disruption in Liberian mining and lagged benefit of higher steel prices yet to be reflected in Europe segment results
Opportunities identified
Enhanced EU trade measures beginning to rebalance European steel market fundamentals with all European blast furnaces back in operation
Strategic growth projects (3.9Mt EAF capacity by 2029 in Europe, Liberia ramp-up) supporting medium to long-term earnings growth
Group shipments in 2H 2026 expected to exceed 1H 2026; flat shipment growth expected to accelerate in 4Q with double-digit year-on-year increase
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: The 9M 2026 investment in working capital of $2.5bn is expected to largely unwind in 4Q 2026, supporting a healthy cash generation and continued returns to shareholders and lower net debt.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
