BNP Paribas stock loses more than 8% over one month and targets its support at €100.66
BNP Paribas is losing ground on Friday, in a context of widespread rise in benchmark interest rates globally and a CAC 40 also in decline. The stock is trading below its two first moving averages, extending downward pressure initiated since the beginning of the month.
A monthly decline of more than 8% that weighs on the technical configuration of the stock
BNP Paribas falls 1.85% during the session, at €101.86, after closing at €103.78 the previous day. The move is part of a broader correction: the stock has lost more than 8% over the last month, erasing a significant portion of annual performance that remains solid at +31%. Over the week, the decline remains limited to less than 1%, indicating that it is indeed the monthly dynamics that dominates the picture. In terms of moving averages, the price is trading below the MA20 (€103.71, gap of -1.78%) and the MA50 (€106.01, gap of -3.91%).
Only the MA200, at €93.62, remains well below the price, with a cushion of nearly 8.8%. The RSI at 48 remains in neutral territory, with no oversold signal despite the monthly correction. The support level at €100.66 is the next observable level to watch: BNP Paribas had approached it in early September before rebounding, and the price is now less than one euro away.
The Bank of Japan and the Fed tighten monetary policy: a dual-edged interest rate environment for banks
The day is marked by a major decision from the Bank of Japan, which raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, following the Fed, which itself raised its rates this week for the first time since 2023. This global tightening of monetary conditions creates an ambiguous environment for banks: it supports long-term interest margins, but weighs on appetite for risk in the short term and increases refinancing costs. Historically, BNP Paribas stock shows negative sensitivity to rising consumer credit rates in the eurozone, which tempers the expected positive effect on interest income. The 3-month Euribor, at 2.513%, has advanced 0.48 points over one year, and the average effective rate on fixed-rate mortgage loans exceeds 3.97%.
In this context, Société Générale gains 0.27% during the session while Crédit Agricole loses 1.07%, two trajectories that underscore divergence within the French banking sector. BNP Paribas's valuation, at approximately 8.8 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year according to the consensus of surveyed analysts, remains below the stock's historical average, without this constituting a market signal in itself. The support level at €100.66 remains the immediate technical reference to monitor in case the decline continues.
