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Last updated : 18/09/2026 - 17h35
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AXA shares return to its 50-day moving average at €44.31, a key technical pivot

The Paris-based insurer is losing ground on Friday in a CAC 40 index that is also declining, after coming close to its key resistance level the previous day. The decline occurs as BofA Securities has updated its price target on the stock and the Bank of Japan has just raised its key rate to its highest level in 31 years.


AXA shares return to its 50-day moving average at €44.31, a key technical pivot

AXA declines 1.6% and returns to its 50-day moving average in a declining index

AXA is down 1.6% to €44.34 during trading, after closing at €45.06 the previous day, exactly at its resistance level. This decline brings the stock back to its 50-day moving average at €44.31, with a negligible gap of 0.07%: the moving average now serves as a pivot. The stock nonetheless remains solidly above its 20-day moving average at €43.68 (difference +1.51%) and its 200-day moving average at €41.18 (difference +7.67%), which preserves the medium-term bullish structure.

The RSI at 60 is in positive territory without signaling overbought conditions. Over the week, the stock is still up nearly 3.2% despite today's consolidation, and shows more than 12% over one year. The CAC 40 is down 0.69% during trading, dragging down a good portion of financial stocks, with AXA among the biggest decliners of the day.

BofA Securities updates its target to €51 and the 2027-2029 plan remains in the background

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BofA Securities updated its price target on the stock on Thursday, September 17, setting it at €51, representing an upside potential of approximately 15% compared to the current price of €44.34. The American bank maintains its rating under review. This target is in line with a well-established fundamental backdrop: the 2027-2029 strategic plan, unveiled on September 15, aims for approximately €25 billion in cumulative organic cash generation with a distribution rate maintained at 75% of operational earnings per share.

When publishing first-half 2026 results on July 31, management had indicated it was on track to achieve the objectives of the "Unlock the Future" plan. On the macro front, the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its key rate from 1.0% to 1.25% on Friday (the highest level since 1995) reinforces pressure on global financial assets, in a context where major central banks are prioritizing inflation control. The support level at €42.92 remains the bearish reference in case of further decline.



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Context

Period
  • Period: FY2025
Key reported figures
  • Revenue: 115 524 millions d'euros
  • Revenue growth: 4,7 %
  • Net income: 9 797 millions d'euros
Guidance from the release
  • we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
  • Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
  • Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
  • Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
  • Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
  • Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
  • Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
  • Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
  • Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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