The Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer continues its rebound in mid-morning trading, in a Parisian market trending upwards. The stock confirms the momentum started the previous day and once again ranks among the top performances of the broader index, following a defense sector that is regaining strength.
Stock Surpasses €300 and Reaches its MM200 After a Challenging Quarter
Dassault Aviation shares gain 2.8% to €300.60, placing it among the strongest risers in the SBF 120, as the index itself advances by 0.68%. The rebound confirms the momentum initiated during the previous session, when the stock had already increased by 2.5%. Over a week, the stock has moved up by 1.9%, while the three-month performance remains negative at -10.5%, illustrating a rebound that mitigates the quarterly decline but does not erase it. Thales follows the trend with a +2.0% increase, and Safran more modestly at +0.5%.
Technically, crossing the €300 threshold brings the price back to its MM200 (€300.11), after several weeks below this long-term reference. The stock also trades above its MM20 (€295.41) and MM50 (€293.59), indicating a coherent recovery across different timeframes. The RSI at 48 remains in a neutral zone, leaving room before potential buying pressure.
A Defense Sector Rebound Supported by a Still Robust Order Book
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Today's movement is part of a broader rebound in European defense stocks, following a consolidation phase over several weeks. The easing of inflation in the Eurozone (2.8% in June according to Eurostat) and Christine Lagarde's speech in Sintra about risks now being 'more broadly balanced' provide a supportive backdrop for cyclical and industrial stocks listed in Paris. The underlying strength of the sector is sustained by the military order book.
At the beginning of the month, India sent a formal request letter for 114 Rafales, a contract valued at €33 billion expected to conclude in 2027. The civil program is also making progress, with the first flight of the Falcon 10X conducted in mid-June at Bordeaux-Mérignac. The next technical milestone to watch is the resistance identified at €304.80, less than 1.5% from the current price.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
