Renault Shares Drop Nearly 2%, Lagging Behind in CAC 40 Alongside STMicro

Lagging in the Index Despite a CAC 40 Boosted by Geopolitical Easing

Renault shares are down 1.88% at €28.26, lagging at the end of the CAC 40, which is up by 0.74%. Only STMicroelectronics is performing worse on the index. This movement comes after a session that saw a rise of more than 4%, following the drop in Brent crude due to the preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran.

The barrel continues its easing this Tuesday (-3.48% around $84), which could have continued to support the automotive sector, sensitive to fuel costs through demand. The rebound in the previous session had brought the price just above the 20-day moving average (€27.98), a threshold that the stock still barely maintains with a 1% margin. The 50-day moving average, at €29.27, remains 3.45% above the current price and continues to cap the medium-term momentum, while the 200-day moving average at €32.29 reflects a lag of more than 12% accumulated over a year, during which the stock has lost more than a third of its value.

Short Positions at a High and Valuation Compressed at 4 Times Earnings

The bearish bet on the stock has intensified in recent weeks. According to reviewed statements, four funds accumulate a net short position of 4.79% of the capital, up by half a point over thirty days. This level, higher than what is usually considered significant, indicates that a portion of institutional investors maintains an unfavorable stance, though this does not necessarily suggest a capitulation or sudden acceleration. The data is worth monitoring but is not sufficient alone to clarify the session.

Meanwhile, the valuation remains contained: according to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is priced at approximately 4.1 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year and 3.9 times those of the next fiscal year, with a projected EPS growth of 4.6%. CIC Market Solutions reaffirmed yesterday its buy recommendation with a target maintained at €40, representing a theoretical potential of about 41% relative to the current price. Industrially, the group announced last week the expansion of the production of the Boreal SUV in Bursa, Turkey, illustrating the continuation of internationalization outside of Europe. The support at €26.69 constitutes the next technical reference in case of an extended decline.