Société Générale stock rebounds and stands out in a sluggish CAC 40
The Parisian bank is distinguishing itself in a nearly stable CAC 40 this Wednesday, as the Fed is about to raise its benchmark rates for the first time in three years. This rebound occurs in a challenging context for the financial sector, with Mediobanca having raised its price target on the stock as early as the previous day.
A rebound supported by a revised analyst opinion and solid half-year results
Mediobanca raised its price target on Société Générale from €80 to €85, while maintaining its "market perform" rating, according to a revision published on September 15. The €85 target represents a potential upside of approximately 15% from the current price, which provides a positive reading for today's rise. This move comes against the backdrop of a solid first half of 2026: when publishing H1 2026 results on July 30, the bank announced a record net income attributable to the group of 3.5 billion euros, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a ROTE of 12%.
The 2026 return on equity target had then been raised to approximately 11%, accompanied by a dividend advance up 23% and an exceptional share buyback of 1.5 billion euros. Based on expected earnings per share, according to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock trades at approximately 9.3 times current fiscal year earnings and 8.2 times the following year's earnings, with EPS growth projected at nearly 14% between the two fiscal years.
A technical configuration still constrained by short and medium-term moving averages
Despite today's rebound, the stock remains technically under pressure. The stock is trading at €73.78, below its MA20 at €74.43 (gap of -0.87%) and more significantly below its MA50 at €77.07 (gap of -4.27%), two moving averages that were already holding back the September 11 rebound, as illustrated by last Friday's session. The MA200 at €71.60, however, has moved back below the price, offering short-term cushion above support at €71.03. The RSI at 39 remains in depressed territory without signaling oversold conditions, a sign that the selling momentum of recent weeks has eased without reversing firmly.
This Wednesday, the session is marked by the Fed's interest rate decision, expected to bring a 25 basis point increase according to consensus: a central bank historically negatively correlated with the stock's valuation through corporate lending rates. The 3-month Euribor stands at 2.51%, up 0.48 points over twelve months, which weighs on refinancing conditions even though the sector's solvency ratios (aggregate CET1 at 15.66% end-2025) remain comfortable. The MA50 at €77.07 represents the first level to break through to validate a sustained turnaround.
