Valneva Shares Bounce Back at Close Despite IXCHIQ Withdrawal
Valneva's stock recorded a morning drop of 8.5% on January 20, ranking among the largest declines in the SBF 120, before rebounding at the close to ultimately post a gain of 2.66% at 4.33 euros. This volatility follows the announcement on the evening of January 19 of the voluntary withdrawal of market authorization and clinical trial applications in the United States for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ. The French laboratory had awaited additional information following the suspension of the license by the FDA in August 2025.
Valneva's withdrawal from the American market comes after the FDA informed the group of a new decision to suspend the IND pending information regarding a new serious adverse event reported abroad. This serious adverse event involved a young adult who had received three simultaneous vaccines, including IXCHIQ. Analysts at Kempen believe that Valneva made the right decision in ceasing to invest resources, noting that the IXCHIQ vaccine represents only about 10% of the group's total valuation.
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Technically, Valneva's stock is trading above its key moving averages, with a 50-day moving average at 3.88 euros and a 200-day moving average at 3.54 euros, indicating an underlying bullish trend. The RSI at 67 points is approaching the overbought zone without reaching it, suggesting there is still room for growth. The price remains close to the resistance at 4.43 euros, which was surpassed during the session before a slight pullback. Analyst recommendations remain mixed, with Stifel maintaining a buy recommendation and a target raised to 10 euros on January 6, 2026, representing a potential upside of 131% from the current price. Conversely, Goldman Sachs remains neutral with a target reduced to 3.25 euros at the end of November 2025. The trading volume for the day represents 1.44% of the capital, reflecting moderate volatility in a context filled with regulatory uncertainties.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
