LVMH stock breaks through 406 € support and falls 20% over three months
The luxury group's stock is declining on Friday, with the CAC 40 also trending downward. Two major brokerage houses lowered their price targets within less than forty-eight hours, amplifying pressure on an already weakened security that has seen several weeks of decline.
Support breakthrough at 406.45 € during the session, quickly recovered
LVMH is down 1.36% to 406.70 € during the session, compared to a close of 412.30 € the previous day. The stock briefly broke through its support level at 406.45 € during the trading session, touching a low of 405.40 €, before slightly rebounding above to trade around 406.55 €. This passage below the threshold, even if fleeting, illustrates the fragility of the current configuration: the price is trading very far below its three moving averages, with a gap of 6.2% below the 20-day MA at 433.47 €, 11.3% below the 50-day MA at 458.72 €, and nearly 20% below the 200-day MA at 507.83 €.
The RSI at 35 reflects persistent selling pressure, without reaching a clear oversold zone. In a CAC 40 that is down 0.76% during the session, LVMH ranks 32nd in the index, with no particular distinction in the downward move. Over one month, the stock shows a decline of 8.81% and 20.41% over three months.
Barclays and Citi lower their price targets but maintain a favorable view on the stock
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Two revisions of analyst ratings were published within forty-eight hours. Barclays, which maintains its overweight opinion, lowered its target on Thursday from 620 € to 590 €, representing an upside potential of more than 45% compared to the current price. Citi, which also maintains a buy rating, lowered its target on Wednesday from 612 € to 568 €, which still represents a gap of nearly 40% above the current trading level. Both houses are thus reducing their ambitions on the stock, while maintaining a favorable opinion, in a context where the sector environment remains under pressure.
When publishing H1 2026 results on July 27, the group had indicated a negative foreign exchange effect of 5% weighing on sales, as well as an unfavorable scope effect of 1% linked to the disposal of DFS and Marc Jacobs. In contrast, the ramp-up of Jonathan Anderson's creations for Christian Dior and the performance of new Louis Vuitton boutiques in Beijing and Seoul were among the positive signals highlighted by management. The support level at 406.45 € remains the immediate reference level to monitor.
LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026
Risks mentioned
Uncertain geopolitical and economic environment affecting global business activity
Slowdown in demand in China impacting Fashion & Leather Goods segment
Market sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations (negative 3% impact in 9M 2026)
Opportunities identified
Continued growth in Watches & Jewelry with 8% organic growth driven by strong jewelry performance
Strong performance of Sephora in Selective Retailing with market share gains and network expansion
Recovery in Wines & Spirits champagne business and good momentum in Asia for Hennessy cognac
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026. Despite an economic and geopolitical environment that remains uncertain, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
