Thales Shares Bounce Over 2% and Enter the CAC 40 Podium
The defense electronics group is regaining ground in mid-morning trading on the Paris exchange, after a series of challenging sessions. The stock is among the top gainers of the CAC 40, partially offsetting the slide observed since the beginning of June. This rebound occurs as the geopolitical context remains tense, with record-scale Ukrainian strikes on the Moscow region reported this morning.
A Marked Rebound Bringing the Stock Close to its 20-Day Moving Average
Thales stock gains 2.31% to €230.00, up from €224.80 the previous day. The stock rises to third place in the CAC 40, while the Paris index falls by 0.27% during the session. Today's movement occurs in a charged geopolitical context, with Ukrainian drone attacks targeting a satellite communications center north of Moscow and over 400 drones intercepted by Russian defense, according to Moscow. This climate continues to fuel the risk premium on European defense stocks.
The rebound brings the price close to its 20-day moving average (MM20) at €231.73, just below it (-0.75%). Longer averages remain significantly higher: the 50-day moving average (MM50) at €234.86 and especially the 200-day moving average (MM200) at €244.94, more than 6% above the current price, confirming that the medium-term momentum is still downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 moves out of the low zone without yet turning to the buyer's side. The stock is also down nearly 4% over one month and 8.8% over three months.
Oxcap Analytics Raises Price Target Above €320
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From the analysts' perspective, Oxcap Analytics set a target of €325.00 on the stock on June 29, with an 'overweight' rating. Compared to the current price, this target represents a theoretical potential for an increase of about 41%, one of the highest in the consensus visible on the stock. This position is taken in an environment where European defense manufacturers maintain robust order books, with Thales developing a multi-layer version of the SAMP/T NG ground-to-air system assigned in June to Eurosam by France, in cooperation with Italy.
On the technical benchmarks side, the identified resistance is at €239.60, a little more than 4% above today's price, while the support at €219.40 (broken last week before being reclaimed) now serves as a reference low zone. The effective crossing of the MM20 will be a first signal to watch in the coming sessions.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
-1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
