Alstom stock rebounds after two contracts in Saudi Arabia and Sweden
The rail manufacturer based in Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine is benefiting from a dual commercial development on Tuesday, with an agreement in Riyadh and an additional order in Sweden announced within hours of each other. The stock is gaining momentum in a quasi-stable SBF 120, after several weeks of pressure.
These two contracts come as the stock was still down nearly 9% over one month, following a two-year low reached on September 24 at €14.51. The session rebound partially offsets this monthly decline, without entirely erasing it: the annual outlook remains heavily in the red, at -31.86%. When the group published its first quarter 2027 results on July 22, 2026, it confirmed its outlook for fiscal year 2026/27, targeting organic revenue growth of around 5% and an adjusted operating margin close to 6.5%.
Technical configuration still under pressure despite today's rebound
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Today's rebound is insufficient to alter the overall configuration. The share price remains below the 20-day moving average at €15.56, with a gap of nearly 4%, and even further below the 50-day moving average at €15.97. The RSI at 38 reflects a dynamic that remains bearish without reaching a clear oversold zone. The support level at €14.54 remains the key floor to monitor, while resistance at €16.91 appears distant given recent performance.
On the short position front, five funds cumulatively hold 4.57% of capital sold short according to reported disclosures, a high level that reflects persistent institutional distrust of the stock, although this ratio has slightly declined by 0.11 percentage points over thirty days. This does not signal a trend reversal among short sellers, but indicates that downward pressure has not intensified recently. According to the consensus of reviewed analysts, the stock is valued at approximately 9.5 times current fiscal year earnings, positioning the valuation at a modest level relative to the group's historical multiples.
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Context
Period
Period: S1 2027
Key reported figures
Revenue: 9 300 millions d'euros
Quarterly revenue: 9 300 millions d'euros
Revenue growth: 3 %
Free cash flow: -1 248 millions d'euros
1 100 millions d'euros
Guidance from the release
« Marge d'exploitation ajustée d'environ 1 % pour l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre 6,5 % annoncé précédemment » ; « Cash-flow libre de (1,5) milliard d'euros pour l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre une génération de cash-flow libre positive précédemment »
Risks mentioned
Difficultés persistantes d'exécution de Coradia Max et allongement du calendrier d'homologation
Décalage de paiements de jalons sur exercices futurs et impact sur cash-flow 2026/27
Risques opérationnels identifiés sur autres projets allemands nécessitant rationalisation
Opportunities identified
Demande solide pour les solutions ferroviaires et portefeuille d'opportunités robuste
Initiatives opérationnelles et plan de désendettement en cours pour renforcer le bilan
Capital Markets Day T2 2027 présentant la trajectoire financière à moyen terme et marges vers 8-10%
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 19 746 millions d'euros
Management commentary: « Croissance organique du chiffre d'affaires comprise entre 2 % et 4 % au cours de l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre environ 5 % précédemment »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.