ArcelorMittal stock breaks through its support at €61.16, lagging indicator in the CAC 40
The steelmaker posted the largest decline in the Paris index on Monday during a session that remained stable for the rest of the CAC 40. The stock broke through its support during trading and remains at its lowest level in several weeks, against a backdrop of tense macroeconomic conditions.
A support level at €61.16 breached, prolonging the weekly and monthly correction
ArcelorMittal fell 2.49% to €60.24 during trading, recording the steepest decline in the CAC 40 while the index advanced 0.12%. The downward breach of the €61.16 support level represents the day's significant technical event: the stock fell through this threshold during the session and failed to reclaim it, trading at €60.26 at the latest reading. This slip extends a correction already well underway, with a decline of 4.56% over the week and 5.73% over the month.
The configuration of moving averages intensifies the pressure: the price is moving below the 20-day MA at €64.35 (a gap of -6.39%) and below the 50-day MA at €62.68 (a gap of -3.89%), placing the stock below both its short and medium-term moving average references. Only the 200-day MA at €53.24 remains well below the price, with a gap of +13.15%, attesting to a still positive underlying dynamic over the annual horizon, with the stock showing a gain of 91.66% over one year. The next chart reference now stands towards the resistance level at €67.54, or approximately 12% above the current level.
A confident half-yearly balance sheet but Ukrainian depreciation weighing on sentiment
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The recent fundamental context is marked by the depreciation charge of approximately 1 billion dollars announced on the Ukrainian site of Kryvyi Rih, whose operations cannot safely resume following a series of missile strikes. This accounting shock, which occurred on Friday, September 25, weighs on the perception of the file even though the stock had advanced that day, supported by quarterly fundamentals deemed solid. During the half-yearly publication of July 30, 2026, management struck a positive tone on prospects for the short, medium and long term, mentioning shareholder returns and structurally improved earnings quality.
The share buyback program, announced in May 2026 for 614 million euros and executed at approximately 100% as of June 30, testifies to this commitment, though it has not been enough to counter today's selling pressure. The RSI at 43 remains in neutral territory, without extreme oversold signals despite the recent decline, which leaves room for further downside before reaching levels that would signal selling exhaustion. The breached support at €61.16 now constitutes the technical reference to monitor in order to assess the dynamics of the coming sessions.
« Looking ahead, we remain very positive. » ; « Outlook across the near, medium and long term remains positive »
Risks mentioned
Ukraine operations idled following multiple missile strikes with safety and logistical challenges; future cash spend expected to be limited
Temporary $2.5bn working capital investment during 9M 2026 creating near-term cash drag, though expected to unwind in 4Q
Weather disruption in Liberian mining and lagged benefit of higher steel prices yet to be reflected in Europe segment results
Opportunities identified
Enhanced EU trade measures beginning to rebalance European steel market fundamentals with all European blast furnaces back in operation
Strategic growth projects (3.9Mt EAF capacity by 2029 in Europe, Liberia ramp-up) supporting medium to long-term earnings growth
Group shipments in 2H 2026 expected to exceed 1H 2026; flat shipment growth expected to accelerate in 4Q with double-digit year-on-year increase
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: The 9M 2026 investment in working capital of $2.5bn is expected to largely unwind in 4Q 2026, supporting a healthy cash generation and continued returns to shareholders and lower net debt.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.