Mercialys shares rise 2.5% over one week after Berenberg lowers its price target

A rebound that regains the 20-day moving average but remains far from the 200-day moving average

Mercialys shares gain 1.77% to €9.80 intraday, while the CAC 40 rises 2.16% and the SBF 120 rises 2.04%. The stock moves back above its 20-day moving average (€9.54, a gap of 2.73%) and approaches its 50-day moving average (€10.06), which remains 2.58% above the share price.

The 200-day moving average, at €11.32, is 13.43% above the share price, which measures the extent of the underlying decline. The stock has lost 17.92% over three months and gained 2.62% over one week: the day's rebound is part of this weekly recovery, without erasing the quarterly decline.

The Paris market remains supported by a context of strong demand for risk, with the VIX at 17.41 versus 20.83 the previous day. The 10-year OAT yield stands at 4.88%, 25 basis points below its October 22 peak (5.13%).

Historically, the share price of the property company has moved inversely to the slope between the OAT yield and the ECB deposit rate: an observation over twelve years, with no predictive value.

Berenberg cuts its target to €13 after a bond issue at 5.25%

On November 2, Berenberg lowered its price target from €14 to €13, while keeping its “hold” rating. This target is 32.7% above the current share price. This revision comes one week after the REIT's bond issue maturing in 2033, whose 5.25% coupon exceeds that of its existing debt, as detailed in the 2033 bond issue.

Operationally, rents are up 2.5% over nine months and the 2026 targets are confirmed (see the mid-October activity update). According to the consensus of recorded analysts, the stock trades at around 7.5 times current-year earnings, with expected EPS growth of 1.4%.

For details of the opinions, see the analyst consensus on Mercialys. On the technical side, support at €9.36 and resistance at €10.34 frame the day's share price.